Ben Moll essay: Why AI won't deliver double-digit GDP growth anytime soon
sebkrier · x · 2026-09-10
Economists Ben Moll and Alex Olegimas published a new essay dissecting the economics behind predictions that AI will soon drive double-digit GDP growth in advanced economies.
- They stress they are extremely bullish on AI and believe the predicted capabilities explosion is already happening (citing the recent Navier-Stokes breakthrough). Their quarrel is with the timeline, not the direction.
- The essay enumerates the assumptions that must all hold for double-digit growth and explains why they likely won't.
- Predictions of 15%, 30% or even 100% annual GDP growth in the 2030s are off the mark; echoing Milton Friedman, AI will affect growth with "long and variable lags."
Related event: Economists Push Back on Predictions of Double-Digit AI-Driven GDP Growth(10 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- AI-generated memos kill the filtering power of Amazon's PRFAQ ritual, Vets say — brandon_galang · 2026-10-26
- Posting has power-crept into a basic skill; attention is the only scarce resource — tokenbender · 2026-10-26
- Dunking on those who believe in AI doom yet trust hardware verification plans — jessi_cata · 2026-10-26
- AI adoption up to 78% but developer trust down to 33%, Stack Overflow surveys show — agh_murad · 2026-10-26
- Nation-state vulns now have shorter half-lives, raising crisis instability — jeremiecharris · 2026-10-26
- Sci-fi plot nearing reality: AI tunes film scenes to viewers' biometric reactions — IgorBrigadir · 2026-10-26