Ben Moll essay: Why AI won't deliver double-digit GDP growth anytime soon
sebkrier · x · 2026-09-10
Economists Ben Moll and Alex Olegimas published a new essay dissecting the economics behind predictions that AI will soon drive double-digit GDP growth in advanced economies.
- They stress they are extremely bullish on AI and believe the predicted capabilities explosion is already happening (citing the recent Navier-Stokes breakthrough). Their quarrel is with the timeline, not the direction.
- The essay enumerates the assumptions that must all hold for double-digit growth and explains why they likely won't.
- Predictions of 15%, 30% or even 100% annual GDP growth in the 2030s are off the mark; echoing Milton Friedman, AI will affect growth with "long and variable lags."
Related event: Economist Ben Moll Pushes Back on Double-Digit AI GDP Growth Predictions(2 posts)→
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