Anthropic's AI Economic Scenario Model: Survey of 10,980 Adults Sees GDP +8.6%
akorinek · x · 2026-09-09
Anthropic's Economics team (Korinek et al.) released a technical report, Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI, plus an interactive scenario explorer modeling how AI could affect US jobs, growth, and unemployment.
- The team surveyed 10,980 US adults via Morning Consult with questions mapped onto the model's parameters; views varied widely, with median outcomes close to their "substantial" scenario: GDP +8.6%, unemployment 4.6%.
- In scenarios ranging from business as usual to AI roughly doubling the growth rate, unemployment stays within historical range and wages hold flat or rise by industry. But in scenarios where growth outpaces anything in economic history, knowledge workers' wages and job prospects suffer—society is far wealthier, and the challenge is broadly sharing the gains.
- Scenarios diverge mostly after 2027 with measurable parameters, so the author argues the next two years may reveal which world we're in. This is v1, improved by outside economists' feedback, and others are invited to scrutinize and build on it.
Related event: Anthropic Models Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI Through 2030(39 posts)→
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