Anthropic model: cognitive-worker unemployment could hit 17.9% by 2030
akorinek · x · 2026-09-09
Another post in Anthropic's economic scenarios thread, focused on reallocation frictions: displaced cognitive workers take time to find work in other occupations, and cognitive wages adjust slowly. Projected 2030 unemployment: 3.9% (modest), 4.6% (substantial), 11.9% (extreme; 17.9% for cognitive workers), versus 3.8% normally.
Related event: Anthropic Models Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI Through 2030(39 posts)→
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