AI's extreme scenario splits wages: +9.7% average, cognitive wages down 11.5%
akorinek · x · 2026-09-09
A thread post from Anthropic's "Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI" paper focusing on wages and distribution: in the 2030 extreme scenario the average wage is 9.7% above the no-AI path, but cognitive wages fall 11.5% while other wages rise 34%. Automation shifts income to capital: the labor share drops from 60% to 56% (substantial) and 45% (extreme).
More from AGI Musings
- Researcher calls for mathematically defined problem lists in every field, citing AI's scalable verification — ValerioCapraro · 2026-09-09
- Why Do AI Doomsayers Work at AI Labs? An Insider's Case for Grace — JacquesThibs · 2026-09-09
- In favor of (some) anthropomorphization of AI systems, from a leading AI researcher — manoelribeiro · 2026-09-09
- Reviewer finds AI-written peer reviews rampant at ARR, calls for benchmarks of AI reviews — ChenhaoTan · 2026-09-09
- The Question Everyone Ignored in Social Media: Who Owns Your Data in the Personal Agent Wars? — MartinGTobias · 2026-09-09
- Ethan Mollick: with AI advancing fast, some hard research is better left for later — emollick · 2026-09-09