AI's extreme scenario splits wages: +9.7% average, cognitive wages down 11.5%
akorinek · x · 2026-09-09
A thread post from Anthropic's "Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI" paper focusing on wages and distribution: in the 2030 extreme scenario the average wage is 9.7% above the no-AI path, but cognitive wages fall 11.5% while other wages rise 34%. Automation shifts income to capital: the labor share drops from 60% to 56% (substantial) and 45% (extreme).
Related event: Anthropic Models Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI Through 2030(39 posts)→
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