Exponential AI revenue proves little about capability, argues binarybits
binarybits · x · 2026-09-09
In a debate on AI capability forecasts, binarybits argues that exponentially increasing revenue tells us nothing interesting about AI capability — almost every successful technology has a steep, exponential-looking phase of its growth curve.
His interlocutor counters that disciplined forecasters increasingly cite exponential economic outputs (revenue, GDP impact) as the key metric.
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