What does 'exponentially improving AI' even mean? Inputs are what's growing

smehmood · x · 2026-09-09

Timothy Lee (@binarybits) questions the common claim that AI is improving exponentially: we have no cardinal measure of intelligence, so the phrase is ill-defined. What's actually growing exponentially are the inputs — compute, data, capital. @smehmood replies that disciplined people instead point to economic measures (revenue, GDP impact) as the exponentially increasing outputs. A sharp short exchange on how AI-progress narratives should be measured.

Related event: Blogger Questions 'Exponential AI Progress': Inputs, Not Intelligence, Are Growing(4 posts)→

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