Interrogating the beliefs behind "10% chance everyone dies" AI doom claims
lucasmeijer · x · 2026-09-09
The author argues people should be far more willing to interrogate the rationale and assumptions underpinning "10% chance of everyone dying" claims — not biorisk, but beliefs about the nature of intelligence, power, instrumental convergence, Omohundro drives, fitness-seeking, and evolutionary theory applied to models.
- He finds it puzzling how little serious writing makes these core beliefs legible to wider scientific scrutiny.
- He calls out IABIED as not such an example; most popular writeups treat audiences as idiots fed basic analogies — exercises in persuasion.
- Most current output skews toward advocacy and field-building rather than rigorous argument.
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