Prediction markets gave 40% odds of a Millennium Prize solve by April 2026
latticecut · x · 2026-09-09
The author notes prediction markets had assigned roughly 40% probability to a Millennium Prize Problem being solved by April 2026 — and that this "crossover" has now been crossed.
The linked article, Cognitive Crossover, reflects on scaling, universality, and AI capability: whether ever-bigger models will keep improving or hit a ceiling. It grew out of a class discussion with the author's MBA students and centers on a "cognitive crossover" phenomenon in model capability trajectories.
A substantive opinion piece on scaling limits and the future of AI capability, useful as a trend-watching perspective rather than a technical result.
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