Epoch AI: GDP Stats Understate US Growth by 0.3pp, Mostly the Nvidia-Sized Hole
abhiadesai · x · 2026-09-09
An Epoch AI report finds US investment in computing equipment has hit $400B/year, nearly triple 2023 levels, yet GDP statistics miss most value created by fabless chipmakers like Nvidia — chips designed in the US but manufactured and sold abroad generate no recorded goods or IP exports. US GDP growth was understated by 0.3 percentage points last year, a gap that could approach 2 points annually by 2028 if Nvidia keeps its pace. The authors confirmed the analysis with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, reconciling the paradox of models solving Millennium Problems while measured GDP growth sits at 1.5%.
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