Metaculus' original AGI question finally meets its criteria, ending an era
AndyMasley · x · 2026-09-09
Metaculus' original AGI question has met its criteria, a landmark for the forecasting community. Researcher jacobpfau, who made his first forecast on the question six years ago, shared his log-scale forecast history and called it 'the end of an era.' The resolution marks a community-level signal of accelerating AI progress and will feed into ongoing debates about when AGI thresholds are actually crossed.
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