Stanford study: AI-exposed employment for workers aged 22–25 is 19% below counterfactual
ArtificialOther · x · 2026-09-08
A Stanford Digital Economy Lab working paper by Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar, and Ruyu Chen uses high-frequency ADP payroll data covering millions of US workers through June 2026 to document six facts about AI's labor-market effects:
- No evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement
- Young workers (22–25) in AI-exposed occupations are 19% below where employment would be had it tracked less-exposed peers; experienced workers show no gap, and the divergence has widened since August 2025
- Adjustment happens through reduced hiring of young workers, not increased separations
- Declines concentrate where AI substitutes for human tasks; where AI complements workers, employment is flat or rising, especially for experienced staff
- Adjustment occurs via employment, not base compensation
- Robust to excluding tech firms and computer occupations, and to controls for rates and remote work; attenuates when controlling for education, with some trends predating generative AI and stronger effects in the ADP sample than national surveys
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