Frontier pre-training runs likely capped at ~2 months to avoid wasting algorithmic progress
scaling01 · x · 2026-09-07
A case that frontier pre-training runs are now capped at roughly two months: spending 100 days on 100K GB200s makes little sense, and long runs lock you out of rapid algorithmic progress — effectively wasting 100 days of it. The author takes this as the base case for GPT-6 Astra's pre-training.
More from Infra
- Nearly half of Claude revenue now flows through cloud marketplace commitments, up from 11% — BenBajarin · 2026-10-26
- Anthropic ARR goes vertical after price cuts: tokens up 4x, $100B+ ARR back in play — GavinSBaker · 2026-10-26
- Alex Banks argues power caps GPU supply, real risk is demand cooling first — thealexbanks · 2026-10-26
- Analyst: Ant has the most fungible AI workload of any model provider today — BenBajarin · 2026-10-26
- Anthropic S-1: training infra edge cut per-task cost 40% and doubled revenue growth — BenBajarin · 2026-10-26
- Rewriting scaling law study: optimal synthetic data share rises from 10% to 32% with compute — heghbalz · 2026-10-26