LEAP survey: 194 experts put >50% odds on a major AI-driven harm event by 2050
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-09-07
- The LEAP (Longitudinal Expert AI Panel) Wave 9 report aggregates responses from 194 experts, 53 superforecasters, and 612 members of the public, collected May–June 2026.
- Panelists split 2030 AI progress scenarios at roughly 28% slow, 49% moderate, 23% rapid.
- Experts and superforecasters both assign better-than-even odds to a major AI-driven harm event (≥50 deaths or $100B damage) occurring by 2050, expected around the mid-2030s.
- The wave also forecasts government restrictions on AI releases, cybercrime losses, AI-related catastrophe probability, and democratic backsliding among major economies.
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