Jason's hyper-bull case: 30% of global rides AV-driven in 10 years, Tesla at 40% share
omojumiller · x · 2026-09-07
Jason lays out a hyper-bull model for autonomous vehicles: 30% of global rides within a decade would require 120M+ cars doing 25 rides/day, 360 days a year, costing $5T to build at $40K per car.
He sketches the ramp (250K cars in 2027, 500K in 2028, then 1M, 3M...) and predicts:
- Tesla #1 with 40% share (50M cars built over the decade) — an insane ramp but Tesla is best positioned.
- Uber #2 with 35%, aggregating cheap Chinese, Japanese and purpose-built robotaxis from two dozen partners, as no carmaker wants to fight Tesla on both cars and network.
- Waymo likely ends up buying a carmaker.
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