Forecasting 1,000 years out is 'a complete waste of time': a debate on longtermist rationalists
binarybits · x · 2026-09-06
binarybits snarks at 'lightcone rationalists' — people who think about improving the galaxy a million years from now — calling it a waste of time. His more serious point: reasonable people apply an epistemic discount rate to forecasts further from human experience; predicting 100 years is hard, 1,000 nearly impossible.
Related event: Blogger mocks rationalists' far-future thinking, sparks feud(2 posts)→
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