binarybits likens rationalists to libertarians backing kids buying heroin, sparking pushback
ohabryka · x · 2026-09-06
Blogger binarybits tweeted that Lightcone rationalists remind him of libertarians advocating letting children buy heroin, as if they enjoy shocking listeners with their epistemics. Lighthaven founder ohabryka took it as a personal reference and pushed back, saying he takes pride in his epistemics. binarybits clarified it wasn't personal and elaborated his real point: reasonable forecasters apply an epistemic discount rate the further out they predict — hard at 100 years, nearly impossible at 1,000.
Related event: Blogger mocks rationalists' far-future thinking, sparks feud(2 posts)→
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