Analyst Speculates Anthropic's Net ARR Shift, Preserved Thinking Change, and Outcome-Based Pricing Play
illscience · x · 2026-09-06
Responding to Gavin Baker's pre-IPO speculation post on Anthropic, illscience offers personal predictions (self-described as having no insider info):
- Consumer plans are likely high-margin since hardcore-user features (ultra code/review/plan, excess usage) are pay-per-use;
- The recent "Preserved Thinking" change was aimed more at breaking routing than distillation, and should lift revenue per task significantly;
- Mythos will be the first of many models vertically integrated into industries and sold as outcomes rather than APIs, echoing Dario's talk of token-level outcome-based price discrimination.
The original post notes Anthropic switched from gross to net ARR accounting, stripping out Meta (speculated >$5B ARR) and Chinese distillation from its $65B figure. The author argues the market underweights how well Anthropic aligns business interests with its technical and mission interests.
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