Skeptic challenges the exponential AI progress argument: what exactly is exponential?
wc_ratcliff · x · 2026-09-05
wcratcliff pushes back on the exponential AI progress narrative: what exactly is growing exponentially? He agrees progress is fast but argues it's likely sub-exponential, and he'd be impressed if it merely stays linear long-term. His core complaint: with exponential progress, being an early believer buys you nothing over recent converts.
Related event: Researchers Propose Autonomous Task Duration as Core AI Capability Metric(4 posts)→
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