Researcher argues AI's best progress metric is human-equivalent length of autonomous tasks
arjunrajlab · x · 2026-09-05
In a debate with @wcratcliff, arjunrajlab argues the most reasonable metric of AI power is the human-equivalent length of task it can complete autonomously, which he says has been growing exponentially. Ratcliff remains skeptical, arguing progress is likely sub-exponential or a power law, and quips that exponential progress means early believers gain nothing over recent converts.
Related event: Researchers Propose Autonomous Task Duration as Core AI Capability Metric(4 posts)→
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