Investor speculates Anthropic stripped Meta revenue from $65B ARR ahead of IPO
GavinSBaker · x · 2026-09-05
Investor Gavin Baker shares (self-described) pure speculation on Anthropic's pre-IPO moves:
- ARR accounting shift: Anthropic reportedly moved from gross to net ARR and stripped out Meta revenue (speculated to exceed $5B) and "Chinese distillation" from its $65B ARR number — cushioning a post-IPO Meta cutoff and lowering its odds.
- Model cadence: Fable 5.1 released to give OpenAI confidence to launch Astra; whispers that Anthropic has "solved Navier-Stokes"; Fable 5.2 likely before IPO, with a big ARR reacceleration planned for September.
- Industry pulse: Grok 4.7, Meta's Watermelon and ChatGPT 6.1 all expected within 6 weeks — labs more confident than at any point in 18 months.
- Agents: Grok Bot is the best enterprise agentic harness he's used; Instinct promising for consumers.
- He also praises new CFO Krishna and points to Amazon's 2010–2016 invest-then-harvest playbook as a model for communicating a training-spend shift.
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