Blogger predicts Astra-level reasoning in ~8 months, open models to fade
teortaxesTex · x · 2026-09-05
X user teortaxesTex lays out a personal AGI timeline:
- Within 7-12 months (median 8), models will reach truly Astra-level reasoning — judging by capability peaks, not eval scores, though Astra is admittedly still underbaked.
- In 12 months, the smallest model with Astra-level reasoning will be around V4-Pro sized, possibly GLM-5 sized.
- No mass recognition of AGI will occur; the leader will be Chinese — "a fair but superficial deal"; open-weight threats become largely irrelevant, with open models slowing down or halting one generation beyond Astra.
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