Epoch AI: Huawei will produce under 4% of Nvidia's AI compute in 2026, won't catch up by 2030

Jsevillamol · x · 2026-09-05

An Epoch AI report analyzing Huawei's chip roadmap and supply chain — from the Ascend 950 to its 3D-stacking bet and domestic HBM supply — concludes Huawei will almost certainly not catch up to Nvidia by 2030: under 4% of Nvidia's AI compute in 2026, potentially falling to 1% by 2028 if relying solely on domestic HBM. Prior independent estimates (2.1-4.1% in 2026) align, countering the 'China is catching up' narrative.

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