Tyler Cowen: intermediate AI doom scenarios are bettable, and the market isn't betting
tylercowen · x · 2026-09-05
Continuing his debate with Dean Ball, Tyler Cowen argues that if intermediate bad AI scenarios—short of immediate extinction or destroying only 5% of global GDP—are deemed implausible, the two actually agree: those scenarios can be bet on in financial markets, and the market doesn't bet on them. The disagreement likely reduces to the probability of total and immediate doom.
Related event: Cowen vs. Ball: Why Aren't AI Pessimists Putting Their Money Down(6 posts)→
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