AI2 releases climate emulator for E3SM that captures rainfall up to 99.99th percentile

allen_ai · x · 2026-09-05

Allen AI announced a coupled emulator that can screen ideas before running the E3SM climate model and enable large ensembles that cheaply sample climate variability. The model is available for download on Hugging Face.

Key limitation: the emulator captures daily rainfall up to the 99.99th percentile but underestimates the very rarest tropical downpours — learning the shape of a distribution is not the same as reaching its far tail.

Next steps: exploring historical runs where greenhouse gases and other climate drivers change over time.

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