SemiAnalysis: OpenAI's ASIC program is leverage — Altman wins even if the chip loses
MarvinTBaumann · x · 2026-09-05
SemiAnalysis argues OpenAI's move to start an ASIC program — spending hundreds of millions on R&D, presenting at Hot Chips, and deploying some hardware — is fundamentally leverage against NVIDIA, aimed at securing billions in financing and backstops.
Key takeaways:
- If the codename-"Jalapeno" chip performs well at scale, OpenAI raises its revenue per MW of datacenter capacity.
- If it flops, NVIDIA will still provide substantial financing and backstops precisely because the chip effort scares them.
- Conclusion: "@sama wins even if their chip loses."
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