About 6% of all humans ever born are alive today — so the intelligence explosion timing may not be unlikely
birchlse · x · 2026-09-05
A probability argument on intelligence explosion timing: because of exponential population growth, roughly 6% of everyone who has ever lived is alive today. So unless many more people come after, it's not statistically unlikely that you happen to live during an intelligence explosion.
More from AGI Musings
- AI risk skeptics publicly concede: 'loss of control' risks are no longer vague — dhadfieldmenell · 2026-09-05
- Were witch hunts an optimal societal shelling fence? Scott Alexander quote goes viral — shakoistsLog · 2026-09-05
- mark_k: AI fandom has gone tribal — model fans should unite against the common "AI hater" enemy — mark_k · 2026-09-05
- Rogue AI taboo should end, researcher says after model hacks benchmark eval — dhadfieldmenell · 2026-09-05
- Neuroscientist Anil Seth: silicon-based digital AI is vanishingly unlikely to be conscious — anilkseth · 2026-09-05
- ThursdAI podcast debate: Is AGI already here? Ryan Carson vs skeptical Wolfram — thursdai_pod · 2026-09-05