New Paper: LLM Forecasts Get More Incoherent as Logical Relations Between Events Increase
soumitrashukla9 · x · 2026-09-05
A new paper by Suproteem Sarkar and Isaiah Andrews measures probabilistic coherence of LLM forecasts. The authors build a forecasting environment from historical stock returns and quantify incoherence by the profit obtainable from arbitraging a model's forecasts.
Key findings: forecasts become more incoherent as logical relations between events increase (joint vs. marginal distributions), and even innocuous added context like "I'm feeling optimistic" or "I had coffee this morning" degrades coherence.
Related event: Paper Tests LLM Probabilistic Coherence via Stock Arbitrage(2 posts)→
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