Astra ECI Score Extrapolations Suggest Progress Faster Than the AI 2027 Scenario
birchlse · x · 2026-09-04
Tyler John presents two extrapolations of Astra's ECI score — one naïve, one compositional — placing capability growth slightly below the AI 2027 scenario, but faster than Daniel Kokotajlo's median timeline and much closer to the 2027 scenario than to the previous exponential trend. The quoted post goes further, claiming progress is "actually going faster than AI 2027." A notable new data point in AGI timeline debates, showing benchmark-score extrapolation becoming a standard forecasting tool.
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