Polymarket traders put just 12% odds on an AI bubble bursting this year
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-04
Polymarket's "AI bubble burst" market currently prices a 12% chance of an industry downturn by end of 2026, with nearly $3M in volume. Resolution requires at least three conditions within 90 days: NVDA down 50% from its high, SOXX down 40%, OpenAI or Anthropic declaring bankruptcy, OpenAI being acquired, H100 rental prices at or below $1.00 for five consecutive days, or a 50% collapse in major hardware suppliers like TSMC, ASML, Broadcom, Arista or Super Micro. Context: San Francisco is reportedly facing a "mansion shortage" as AI wealth enriches tech elites.
Related event: Polymarket Traders Bet Against an AI Bubble Burst by End of 2026(6 posts)→
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