Aleksa Gordić: we're systematically too pessimistic about AI progress
gordic_aleksa · x · 2026-09-04
AI engineer Aleksa Gordić argues pessimism about AI progress is the rule, not the exception — even for techno-optimists embedded in the SF ecosystem who use and build these systems daily.
- In 2014, experts predicted Go would take decades to "solve"; AlphaGo beat Lee Sedol in 2016
- In 2021, professional superforecasters projected 50% on the MATH benchmark by 2025; it got there in 2022
- Gordić himself was way off on the pace of coding agent progress as recently as mid-last year
He says it's hard to imagine the world by end of decade, but there's a chance to make it glorious for all humankind.
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