UK AISI: Astra's no-CoT time-horizon exceeds 30 minutes, far above prior estimates

a_karvonen · x · 2026-09-04

Recapping a June estimate of frontier models' no-CoT time-horizons: models could complete tasks taking humans 3 minutes without chain-of-thought, doubling roughly yearly. Now UK AISI finds Astra's no-CoT time-horizon exceeds 30 minutes. The author warns an AI doing the equivalent of 30 minutes of thinking, unmonitorable, is intuitively far more dangerous than models reasoning in human language.

Related event: UK AISI: Astra Hits 30.9-Minute Time Horizon Without CoT(7 posts)→

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