François Chollet pulls AGI timeline to sooner than 2030 after Astra and ARC-AGI-3
relegi · reddit · 2026-09-04
François Chollet, creator of ARC-AGI and historically one of the most skeptical voices on near-term AGI and LLM scaling, has pulled his timeline forward again.
The evolution of his stance:
- In 2024, he estimated AGI was roughly "10 years-ish" away
- In February 2026, he said around 2030, roughly when ARC-AGI 6-7 would land
- Today, following the GPT-6 Astra release and ARC-AGI-3 saturation, asked whether 2030 still holds, he answered: "Sooner, given progress is happening faster than I expected."
One of the most famous AGI skeptics repeatedly accelerating his own prediction is being read as a strong signal about the pace of progress.
Related event: Chollet Moves Up His AGI Timeline Again After GPT-6 Astra's ARC-AGI-3 Score(8 posts)→
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