Apollo researcher: AI monitors should flag threats on balance of probabilities, not just obvious evidence
MariusHobbhahn · x · 2026-09-04
Marius Hobbhahn outlines two key design choices in his AI monitoring approach:
- Monitors should do proactive flagging and judging based on the balance of probabilities rather than only reacting to immediate, obvious evidence.
- The threat models and failure modes covered are, in his view, better carved up than in existing monitors.
He expects this to matter more as attacks become more sophisticated and longer-horizon.
Related event: Apollo Researcher Outlines Probabilistic, Severity-Scored AI Monitors(3 posts)→
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