AI is a scary-good persuader, but its real-world influence will be smaller than feared: Oxford researcher
_FelixSimon_ · x · 2026-09-02
Oxford researcher Felix Simon argues in a Transformer piece that while AI systems are now worryingly good at persuasion — outperforming seasoned campaigners at getting people to part with money in experimental settings — their real-world influence will likely be smaller than many fear.
His four reasons:
- It's hard to reach people and capture their attention at scale
- Experiments are not the real world
- People are constantly exposed to conflicting messages
- People differ in persuadability and will resist attempts
He also distinguishes persuasion (offering inspectable, rejectable reasons) from manipulation (deception that bypasses that process). Net takeaway: the capability is real, but social friction between lab results and real-world influence is substantial.
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