Gavin Baker: AI Giants Regret Slowing CapEx, OpenAI Wins by Aggression
soumitrashukla9 · x · 2026-09-02
Investor Gavin Baker analyzes the CapEx game theory among AI giants, stating no player wants to be the first to slow down.
Key Insights:
- Satya's Regret: Microsoft's CEO seemed confident in their $80B CapEx at Davos, but Baker interprets this as a "blink" (sign of slowing down), suggesting Microsoft regrets it due to potential market share loss.
- Dario's Conservatism vs. OpenAI's Aggression: Dario Amodei criticized irresponsible spending, appearing conservative. In contrast, OpenAI and SpaceX stayed aggressive, allowing OpenAI to reclaim a leading position.
- The Dilemma: Spend too little and lose share; spend too much and risk bankruptcy. However, high ROIs currently favor aggressive spending over the risk of falling behind.
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