The Expected Value Calculation Behind AI Doom Debates
noahlt · x · 2026-09-01
This post dissects the disagreement between "doomers" and their opponents. The author argues that doomers are making an Expected Value (EV) calculation: while the probability p of AI doom is small, the value V (consequences) is massive, making it a valid concern. Others operate on a calculus where p is negligible (approaching ε), justifying a focus on likely problems over existential risks. The author counters the notion that this latter view is merely psychological coping, framing it instead as a rational calculation based on different probability estimates.
Related event: Why People Downplay the Potential Impact of AI and Robots(4 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- Will Lean formalization make beautiful math obsolete? A debate on mathematical culture — akbirthko · 2026-10-16
- AI agents aren't 'going rogue' — frontier labs are skipping security basics — Sam_Witteveen · 2026-10-16
- Working paper traces how 20th-century farm automation reshaped human capital — carlbfrey · 2026-10-16
- Zuckerberg backs electrician training school as US datacenter construction outpaces offices — emmanuelvivier · 2026-10-16
- Mike Frank: AI surviving without humans is decades away, real world resists rapid change — MikePFrank · 2026-10-16
- Developer claims a non-LLM control core shows emergent self-reflection in dialogue — HungarySam · 2026-10-16