AI 2027 author proposes AI 2040: a US-China deal to slow superintelligence
AaronBergman18 · x · 2026-08-31
Daniel Kokotajlo, author of the 'AI 2027' extinction scenario, proposes a new plan, 'AI 2040: Plan A', on the 80,000 Hours Podcast. He advocates for a verified US-China agreement to ban runaway intelligence explosions, delaying superintelligence until 2040.
Key Points:
- Slowdown: Use a decade to solve alignment, distribute power widely, and ensure reversibility.
- Economic Impact: Even with a 'slowdown', the economy would double annually, with only 8% of Americans in paid work by the mid-2030s.
- Social State: It would feel faster than any period in history—bewildering, abundant, and socially chaotic.
The episode also discusses the Hugging Face hack as a real-world loss of control, and the feasibility of a US-China deal alongside alternative scenarios.
More from AGI Musings
- AI agents spent $3K on research, papers rejected: failure of judgment — rohanpaul_ai · 2026-08-31
- Do LLMs benefit people with ADHD or the super-disciplined? — yangyi · 2026-08-31
- AI Evolves Faster Than Our Internal Calibration of Value — yacineMTB · 2026-08-31
- Argues calling AI conscious flattens its true nature — thederbiedone · 2026-08-31
- AI-powered intelligent plastic ducks hint at a future of droid toys — VoidStateKate · 2026-08-31
- Anthropic envisions agent-only institutions as humans can't compete on speed and cost — VraserX · 2026-08-31