Why AI won't cause a cyber apocalypse but will smoothly increase risks
joshua_saxe · x · 2026-08-29
Cybersecurity expert Joshua Saxe argues against the 'cyber apocalypse' narrative, suggesting that while AI will increase the CAGR of cyber damages, the impact will be smoother and less catastrophic than often claimed.
Key points:
- Historical inefficiency: Critical infrastructure cyberwarfare (e.g., Russia vs. Ukraine) has historically failed to produce reliable damage compared to physical means like drones.
- Calibration: Risks will grow from a low baseline, despite the potential for agents to scale attacks.
- Human bottleneck: Stealth requirements in lateral movement mean humans remain in the loop, potentially limiting speedups (e.g., reducing a hypothetical 1000x speedup to 3x).
- Resource asymmetry: Attackers lack the inference access, capex for GPUs, and engineering talent that defenders (like CrowdStrike or Google) possess, slowing their adoption curve.
Related event: Debate Over "Moderate Doomerism": How Big Is the AI Cyber Threat(6 posts)→
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