Rebutting random walk: Survival probability updates rationally over time
erikbryn · x · 2026-08-29
Erik Brynjolfsson argues against the random walk hypothesis with a counterexample: assume an extinction risk window T with probability p each year, and no risk after T. Each year we survive, we gain information and should monotonically update our expected value of survival. Such rational patterns do not appear as random walks.
Related event: Hanson's Random Walk View Claim Meets Counterargument(2 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- The Minimum You Need to Do Before AI Changes Your Life — Least-Measurement350 · 2026-08-29
- Widespread Automation Causes Price Collapse; High-Cost Lawyers Replaced by Compute Costs — zacharynado · 2026-08-29
- Adam Grant: AI Struggles with Creative Leaps Due to Historical Training Data — blaizedsouza · 2026-08-29
- AI Datacenters as Modern Temples Connecting to Ultimate Intelligence — karmicoder · 2026-08-29
- Hot Take: Destructively Scanning Common Books for AI is Acceptable — Crazyscientist1024 · 2026-08-29
- Miles Brundage: Politicians underestimate AI urgency despite growing awareness — Miles_Brundage · 2026-08-29