Why AI hasn't boosted productivity yet: The reliability gap and the J-curve effect
sayashk · x · 2026-08-29
This essay investigates why AI, despite the hype, has had a negligible macroeconomic impact. It attributes this to a 'reliability/capability gap,' where AI performance is 'jagged' and prone to generating 'workslop' (convincing but low-quality output), necessitating new verification loops. It cites the 'productivity J-curve' theory: initial adoption of general-purpose technologies often lowers measurable productivity due to investments in intangible capital like organizational restructuring and process redesign before gains materialize.
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