Forecaster Eli Lifland Puts ~15% on Key AI Milestone, Shares Full Distribution
eli_lifland · x · 2026-08-29
Noted AI forecaster Eli Lifland clarified that by "plausible" he means roughly 15% probability, and published his full probability distribution on the AI Futures Model site, covering year-by-year forecasts across multiple AI milestones.
More from AGI Musings
- Are Billion-Dollar AI Crises More Likely Than Human Extinction? — JoshPurtell · 2026-08-29
- AI's Real Appeal: Creating the Illusion of Competence — overthestatus · 2026-08-29
- "Lights Out for Humanity" Is Too High a Bar for AI Risk Arguments — JoshPurtell · 2026-08-29
- Creator Stops Making AI Art Finding It Depressing — moultano · 2026-08-29
- Discussion on Nanoassembly Limits and Programmable Bacteria — teortaxesTex · 2026-08-29
- UChicago Prof on AI & Productivity: Macro Uncertainty — danielrock · 2026-08-29