Allan Dafoe: Even a Limited Intelligence Explosion May Outpace Our Ability to Manage It
AllanDafoe · x · 2026-08-29
In this thread Allan Dafoe makes several points: (2) capability measures like METR's time horizon could "go to infinity" while only implying 100% reliability on a narrow range of tasks; (3) linear-vs-exponential distinctions often depend on the metric (linear Elo implies exponential odds); and (4) even a limited intelligence explosion may go far faster and higher than we are equipped to manage with confidence.
Related event: Debate over METR time horizon hitting infinity and what it really means(4 posts)→
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