Allan Dafoe: METR-Style Time Horizons Could "Go to Infinity" Yet Stay Narrow
AllanDafoe · x · 2026-08-29
In a thread, Allan Dafoe argues that capability measures like METR's time horizon could "go to infinity" while only implying 100% reliability on a narrow range of tasks. He also notes that linear-vs-exponential distinctions often depend on the metric — linear Elo implies exponential odds.
Related event: Debate over METR time horizon hitting infinity and what it really means(4 posts)→
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