Polymarket: 9% chance quantum computing breaks Bitcoin by 2027
Polymarket · x · 2026-08-29
Polymarket data shows only a 9% probability that quantum computing will break Bitcoin by the end of 2027, with the market heavily favoring "No" at 93¢. The resolution criteria are strict: a valid private key must be derived from a standard, unweakened Bitcoin address on the mainnet using a quantum algorithm (like Shor's), and used to sign a valid transaction from an address not controlled by the demonstrator.
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