SemiAnalysis: Anthropic and OpenAI to swallow majority of global compute
新智元 · wechat · 2026-08-28
Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis predicts that OpenAI and Anthropic will consume about one-third of global new compute (over 5 GW) this year, rising to 50% next year, potentially dominating the majority of effective available compute by 2028.
Key Points:
- Revenue per Megawatt: The race is defined by revenue per MW. With powerful models (e.g., GPT-5.6/Opus5), their revenue far exceeds costs ($10-15M/MW), with Anthropic hitting up to $50M/MW.
- Flywheel Effect: High revenue justifies premium compute rentals (e.g., Musk selling at $40B/GW), funding better models and creating a virtuous cycle.
- Allocation: Currently 50% of compute is for research (not training), 40% for inference. As revenue per MW soars, inference share may drop in favor of R&D for AGI.
- Risks: $11T in cumulative capex could raise market financing costs. Government regulations (e.g., blocking model releases) threaten to break the revenue-compute loop.
Related event: OpenAI and Anthropic Set to Consume a Third of Global New Compute(2 posts)→
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