Nvidia's Q2 Masterstroke: FY28 Guidance of $691B vs $570B Expected
Beth_Kindig · x · 2026-08-28
I/O Fund lead analyst Beth Kindig breaks down Nvidia's fiscal Q2:
- Industry researchers expect Nvidia's AI accelerator share to fall from 90% in the Hopper/Blackwell era to 70% by end of 2026, as hyperscalers deploy custom silicon.
- Management flipped the narrative on the call: sovereign AI, regional AIs, neoclouds and enterprise AI startups now represent about half the business, growing 100% a year.
- The biggest surprise: Nvidia broke its guidance cadence with an FY28 guide of 70% growth, roughly $691 billion, vs analyst estimates of $570 billion.
Takeaway: the exact market-share percentage may be the wrong question—customer diversification means Nvidia needs hyperscalers less than the market assumes.
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