Physicist Aaron Bergman proposes 3/7 as the answer to the Sleeping Beauty problem

AaronBergman18 · x · 2026-08-27

Aaron Bergman argues the answer to the classic Sleeping Beauty problem might be 3/7 — neither the halfer's 1/2 nor the thirder's 1/3. He calls it a minority position given his priors but says he likes it. Follow-up discussion suggests the result comes from recursive uncertainty about how to assign probability between 1/2 and 1/3, and notes it's "awfully convenient" that the recursion is both coherent and convergent.

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