The Fallacy of Bayes-omorphizing All Agents
jessi_cata · x · 2026-08-27
The author argues against the tendency to treat all agents as Bayesians. Using a counter-example of a Marxist who believes the revolution is inevitable but refuses to bet on it, the post illustrates the distinction between anticipation and betting.
More from AGI Musings
- AGI may not need 10T params; task decomposition makes intelligence a matter of TTC scaling — teortaxesTex · 2026-08-27
- Guardian Podcast: AI in Cancer Detection and Europe's AI Scene — nordicinst · 2026-08-27
- Will the Future Belong to Generalists or Specialist Ecosystems? — PierceLilholt · 2026-08-27
- Pedro Domingos mocks Bill Gates for supporting 'bad ideas' on AI policy — pmddomingos · 2026-08-27
- Opinion: Prefer AI that knows its limits over overconfident ones — pastramimachine · 2026-08-27
- Autonomous AI agents could freely maintain open source and donate to public goods — xuanalogue · 2026-08-27