Zvi Refutes 'Modesty's Bailey': Why Blind Deferral to Expert Consensus Fails

Don't Worry About the Vase (Zvi) · rss · 2026-08-27

Zvi argues against 'modesty arguments' that claim one should mostly defer to 'expert consensus' or epistemic authorities. Citing a historical exchange between Eliezer Yudkowsky and Leopold Aschenbrenner, the post distinguishes between the defensible 'Motte' (treating others' views as evidence) and the flawed 'Bailey' (claiming you cannot rationally weigh your own view higher than consensus). Zvi emphasizes that experts are often influenced by social pressures and information cascades, asserting the moral duty to think for oneself rather than confusing status with smarts.

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