Polymarket gives Tesla just 17% odds of launching California robotaxis by year-end
Polymarket · x · 2026-08-27
A Polymarket contract on whether Tesla will publicly launch a driverless robotaxi service in California by Dec 31 currently prices at just 17%. Tesla holds only an entry-level DMV testing permit requiring safety drivers, has logged zero autonomous test miles for years, and is far from the multi-stage approvals needed for driverless paid service. Meanwhile, the Boring Company won approval for 19 more Las Vegas stations (123 planned total), but no new California filings exist—regulatory and testing hurdles dominate.
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